Investor brief · lower-Michigan mass-market cider producer · with history

Cider Apple Market

Market numbers for an investor assessing a regional cider producer that owns orchards in Michigan and other states, contracts for fruit and juice, relies heavily on concentrate, and is expanding beyond Michigan. Every chart now carries its history, the range it has moved in, and where this year sits. Each section ends with questions to put to management.

00 · RAW MATERIAL COST PER CASE

What this fall's prices do to cost per case

Apple input cost for one 24×12 oz case (2.25 gal of finished cider), by source. Market prices are the latest weekly AMS quotes in the data. Rows marked example are placeholders to replace with the company's own figures.

Apple juice content of finished cider % Press yield gal/ton Concentrate dilution : 1

Source	Price	Mix %	$ / case

Blended apple cost per case

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Apple input cost per case by source, weekly since late 2018, at the assumptions above (M1). Fruit rows use the "mostly" quote; gaps are weeks with no established market.

What it means for this producer

Imported concentrate has been the cheapest apple input in every week on record, and domestic concentrate has run above fruit since 2024. A concentrate-heavy, mass-market producer's input cost therefore depends mostly on where its concentrate comes from, which is set by tariffs and the dollar more than by the Michigan crop.

Pressing costs, freight, sugar, packaging and excise are excluded. Press yield and dilution ratio are industry rules of thumb; the company will have its own.

Ask management

What is the actual source mix by volume (own fruit, contract fruit, purchased juice, domestic and imported concentrate) and the juice content of the core SKUs?
How much of next year's concentrate is already contracted, at what price, and from which countries?
What does a ton of fruit from the company's own orchards cost to grow and press, fully loaded?
Looking at the weekly chart, when in the season does the company commit, and has that timing been near the lows?

01 · SUPPLY

Michigan's crop has swung by half in a single year

Total apple production, million pounds, 1980 to 2025 with the August 2026 forecast. Washington is shown in the table (off-scale).

Production volatility (M4): coefficient of variation and worst single-year drop.

What it means for a cidery

A late-April freeze hit the Mid-Atlantic hardest in 2026: Pennsylvania's crop is forecast down 58% and Virginia's at its smallest in over 50 years. Michigan is forecast within 1% of last year.

The long record is the point: Michigan lost 88% of its crop in 2012 and more than 30% in six other years since 1980. New York's worst year was 2012 (−41%). Washington's biggest drop in the same period was far smaller. Owned Michigan orchards therefore carry weather risk that only out-of-state fruit or concentrate can diversify.

Ask management

Where are the company's out-of-state orchards, and how did those regions fare in the April 2026 freeze?
What share of contracted fruit comes from Pennsylvania, Virginia or New York, and were any contracts shorted this year?
In 2012-type years, what fraction of input volume shifted to concentrate, and at what cost?

02 · WHERE THE FRUIT GOES

Eastern apples are half processing fruit, and have been for decades

Share of utilized production that went to processors (juice, cider, sauce, slices), by state, 1980 to 2025.

2025 split, million pounds. Withheld values are marked.

03 · FRUIT PRICE

Processing apple prices are at the top of a 45-year range

Season-average grower price for processing apples, $ per ton (all processing uses). Michigan and New York are packinghouse-door returns; other states point of first sale.

Juice and cider apples specifically, $ per ton. NASS stopped publishing the juice-and-cider split after the 2017 crop; the series ends there.

Weekly spot quotes, $ per cwt, since late 2018. New York juice stock and Michigan juice apples ("mostly" price; band is the quoted range). Weeks with no established market are gaps.

What it means for a cidery

Michigan and New York processing fruit averaged $335–345 a ton in 2025, roughly twice Washington's. Before 2007 Michigan processing apples rarely fetched more than $170 a ton; the 2012 freeze set the previous record ($539), and 2021 ($455) was the next freeze year. High prices follow short crops.

Spot juice-apple quotes this fall are up about 40% on a year ago in both New York and Washington. At $19/cwt, a ton of New York juice apples costs about $380 before pressing. Michigan's own market for the 2026 crop had not been established at the last report.

Ask management

Are fruit contracts fixed-price, indexed to Market News, or spot?
How does the 2026 budget compare with the ~40% rise in spot juice-apple prices?
What price did the company pay in 2012 and 2021, and how much volume did it have to replace?

04 · CONCENTRATE

Domestic concentrate has decoupled from imports

Apple juice concentrate, 70 Brix, $ per gallon, weekly. Imports are East Coast port of entry, duties paid, midpoint of quoted range. Vertical marks are tariff events (S09).

U.S. apple juice imports, million single-strength-equivalent gallons, marketing years (Aug–Jul) since 1980/81. USDA ERS.

2025 calendar-year imports by origin (ERS Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, March 2026): 351 million SSE gallons, lowest since 2002.

What it means for a cidery

Domestic concentrate rose from about $14 to $22 a gallon in a year, while Chinese, Turkish and European offers fell to about $9. In 2018–19 all four quotes sat within a dollar of each other; the spread (M2) is now the widest on record.

Imports supplied over 60% of U.S. apple juice for most of the 2000s and peaked at 587 million SSE gallons in 2010/11. China's share fell from about 80% to 31% after the 2018–19 tariffs; Türkiye is now the top supplier, so trade policy remains a live cost risk.

Ask management

Which countries does imported concentrate come from today, and what is the plan if tariffs on that origin rise?
Is any 'Michigan-grown' or 'made with Michigan apples' claim on the label, and does the mix support it?
Is concentrate bought on spot or annual contracts, and when does the company commit?

05 · GLOBAL CONTEXT

China grows seven times the U.S. crop

Apple production, million 42-lb bushels, marketing years since 1990/91. USDA FAS PSD.

06 · CIDER DEMAND

Hard cider volume peaked in 2015 and has drifted since

U.S. hard cider taxable withdrawals (the closest official sales proxy), million wine gallons, TTB, 2012 to 2025. Excludes imports.

Monthly taxable withdrawals, million gallons, to the latest filing month.

What it means for a cidery

By TTB's count, domestic cider removed for sale fell from about 56 million gallons in 2015 to 35 million in 2025, a decline in every year but one. Scanner dollar sales (Circana, $502M in 2025, +2%) show a flatter picture because prices and flavored mixes rose, but volume is the metric a mass-market producer lives on.

Michigan is the strongest regional market: more cideries than any other state, and local brands hold 70% of the top in-state SKUs. Expansion means taking share in a shrinking volume pool.

Ask management

Which states are next, and how are velocities and distributor reorders tracking in states already entered?
What share of volume is flavored versus traditional apple cider, and how is that trending?
How has the company's own volume moved against the TTB national series since 2015?

07 · OWN ORCHARDS

Labor rules moved in growers' favor, but the floor is rising again

Michigan H-2A minimum wage (AEWR), $ per hour. The single rate and the two-tier rates are different methods and are not joined.

Years with a 30%+ production drop by state since 1980 (S15).

What it means for this producer

Owning orchards gives cost control in normal years but concentrates weather risk: Michigan has had six 30%+ drops since 1980. Orchards in other states only diversify that risk if they sit in different weather zones.

Labor is about 60% of orchard production cost. The October 2025 federal rule replaced Michigan's single H-2A wage ($18.15) with two skill tiers ($13.78 and $17.47), lowering the floor for entry-level work. The FY2026-27 tiers already step up to $14.45 and $17.64. The saving depends on how the company classifies its crews.

Ask management

What share of total apple input comes from company-owned orchards in a normal year, and in a freeze year?
How are H-2A workers classified under the new tiers, and what is the estimated labor saving?
Is crop insurance in place on owned orchards, and what does it cover?

08 · PACKAGING, FREIGHT, SUGAR

Cans are a second commodity exposure

Producer price indexes, rebased to January 2019 = 100: aluminum cans, aluminum mill shapes, refined sugar. BLS.

Midwest retail diesel, $ per gallon, weekly since 1994. EIA.

What it means for this producer

For a mass-market canned cider, the can can cost as much as the apple content. The Section 232 aluminum tariff went from 10% (2018) to 25% then 50% in 2025; because U.S. aluminum is priced off the Midwest premium, the tariff raises can costs even when the metal is recycled domestically. The can-price index is the public proxy; the premium itself is a paid assessment.

Diesel matters twice: shipping finished cases out of Michigan and hauling concentrate in from coastal ports.

Ask management

Are can supply contracts fixed or passed through on the Midwest premium, and when do they reset?
What are apple input, packaging, freight and excise per case, as a share of net price?
What is the can weight per case (needed for the aluminum sensitivity)?

What this fall's prices do to cost per case

Michigan's crop has swung by half in a single year

Eastern apples are half processing fruit, and have been for decades

Processing apple prices are at the top of a 45-year range

Domestic concentrate has decoupled from imports

China grows seven times the U.S. crop

Hard cider volume peaked in 2015 and has drifted since

Labor rules moved in growers' favor, but the floor is rising again

Cans are a second commodity exposure

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